[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE
WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO WAVE CURVATURE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N26W 2N39W 6N52W 7N60W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 90/120 NM FROM 9N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 8W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
17W-21W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 7N25W-6N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 52W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 22W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S
MEXICO NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF W OF
96W. THIS IS GIVING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
20N E OF 96W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US
INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 96W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1015 MB
HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
30N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 18N88W NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. THIS SETUP IS
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 25N W OF 72W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AND START TO RETREAT N AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA
EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 73W-80W
INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 72W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS E CUBA/
WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N32W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N43W CONTINUING ALONG
20N50W UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
15N65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF
16N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG 30N40W TO 26N43W.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR 14N14W W ALONG 11N32W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net