[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO WAVE CURVATURE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE
CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 6N31W 1N38W 2N48W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 120 NM FROM 8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
6N20W-3N33W...WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE 2N40W-3N48W...AND S OF 9N TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S
MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W
GULF W OF 96W. THIS IS GIVING THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 20N E OF 95W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 21N E
OF 96W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC. A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 27N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
17N89W EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO OVER
BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR
AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 17N TO
OVER HONDURAS FROM 84W-88W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 23N W OF 72W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW TO 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 26N FROM 74W-80W INCLUDING
THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM E OF THE FROM N OF 26N. BEHIND
THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OFF THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N32W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N43W CONTINUING ALONG
20N50W UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
10N65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF
16N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG 30N41W TO 25N43W.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR 14N14W W ALONG 11N35W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE.

$$
WALLACE


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