[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072304
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 180 NM
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. A SLIGHT HINT OF LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS
EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 60W/61W
MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE SIGNATURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE AXIS AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS S
AMERICA. BASED ON A FEW SHIPS/BUOY OBS THE WAVE AXIS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST NEAR 74W WHERE THERE IS SOME SLIGHT WAVE
SIGNATURE.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N26W 4N38W 5N53W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS E OF 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 20W
ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
AFRICA NEARING THE COASTLINE FROM 8N-14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
AND THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE N GULF WHERE THERE IS AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 93W. THESE SHOWERS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK SFC TROUGH. A 1015 MB
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W GULF NEAR 27N92W. LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IS THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 27N.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH WILL LIKELY BACK WESTWARD IN THE AREA LATE FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE S PORTION AS
SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS.

CARIBBEAN...
LITTLE WEATHER CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 22N82W 19N86W 16N89W.
THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WWARD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
MUCH OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-82W THIS INCLUDES JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO NEAR CUBA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS IN THE SAME AREA AS LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND A COUPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRES S OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING A
FEW SHOWERS OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE S AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NE OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL MOVE WWARD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA
BY THIS WEEKEND. TRADES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 15-20 KT E OF
70W...LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE W OF THERE DUE TO THE SFC
TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS A
PORTION OF THE W ATLC. THE UPPER AXIS LIES ALONG 32N80W 25N87W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N65W. UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDS SWWARD FROM THE HIGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NEWARD TO
32N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS 360 NM TO THE SE OF A
LINE ALONG 23N79W 27N75W 32N68W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUT IT DRYING UP AS IT
TRAVELS SWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N66W 25N73W. MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MIGRATING SWWARD OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N43W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC
TROUGH DIGGING TO 15N54W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF 32W S OF 24N. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 39N21W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 25N E OF 30W. AT
THE SFC...RIDGING IS THE THEME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N43W MIGHT
BE BUILDING TO THE SFC CONTAMINATING THE RIDGE. THERE IS AN
AREA OF SHOWERS SWIRLING ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW WITHIN 240 NM
OF THE CENTER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THIS
REGION.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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