[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SEEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN GUYANA IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY
FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N10W 6N20W 4N30W 4N44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION
ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 70W WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A WEAKENING
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN 107W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND 120W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N
WEST OF 85W...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 82W...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-
WARD THROUGH BERMUDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 82W...WITH THE
HISPANIOLA-TO-BERMUDA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH
OF 25N EAST OF 85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TO THE AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 80W  AND 93W...AS MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST
OF 20N67W 14N73W 11N73W IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AND
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 74W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W 27N68W BEYOND 32N63W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RUNS CUBA
NEAR 22N80W TO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 33N45W YESTERDAY
NOW IS NEAR 28N44W...HAVING MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MEETS ALONG 50W...PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM 32N TO 16N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 30N13W 25N34W 13N48W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N AND NORTHEAST
OF THE 28N44W LOW CENTER. A 1009 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 39N18W...
WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N23W...ABOUT 350 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 28W AND
66W.

$$
MT


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