[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 12N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE
CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS NO
LONGER IN THE ATLC REGION.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N27W 5N36W 2N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 150 NM OF 6.5N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 17W AND WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-27W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
31W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER CLEAR MORNING FOR THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS
COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 20N E OF
94W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1014
MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
28N89W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
17N90W EXTENDS ENE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N88W. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND
FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N FROM
74W-79W...INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 22N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
25N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 23N FROM
71W-77W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N69W-29N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N75W TO BEYOND 32N66W. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES
WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
29N80W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W NE TO BEYOND
32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W SW ALONG 20N44W
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N63W.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 16N FROM
THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 8N/9N. THE AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N BETWEEN 21W-53W WITH CLEARING
E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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