[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE
WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE
6N39W-9N44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE
CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
ANY WAVE SIGNATURE OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N W OF 81W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N23W 4N37W 4N53W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN
150/180 NM S OF 9N W OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-39W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-32W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS
COVERING THE W GULF W OF 93W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 20N E OF
93W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1014
MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
28N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
18N90W EXTENDS E ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 18N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. THIS
SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE
W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 18N FROM 73W-80W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER
OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 22N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 22N FROM 72W-79W
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N76W TO BEYOND 32N65W. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR
SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W NE TO BEYOND
32N60W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W SW ALONG 20N46W
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N65W.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N FROM
THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 8N/9N. THE AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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