[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS SURGED AHEAD AND IS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 43W S
OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 4N. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 56W S OF 11N
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. PART OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S
AMERICA. THERE IS SOME WAVE SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
DERIVED WINDS AND IN A FEW SHIPS OBS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE OSCILLATED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE PRECIP NOW EXTENDS
FROM 4N TO 8N W OF 55W ACROSS S AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD TO 11N W OF 52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS NEARLY ENTIRELY INLAND OVER S AMERICA. THIS WAVE
AND THE ONE BEHIND IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT FROM 4N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
APPROACHING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AN
AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A SFC TROUGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N21W 4N34W 3N53W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6N BETWEEN 29W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA...MOVING OFFSHORE E OF 14W FROM 3N-11N. REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON CONVECTION OVER S
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA IN
THE EXTREME SW CORNER. AMPLIFIED NARROW UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SW U.S. A WEAK 1014 MB SFC
HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. LIGHT SFC WINDS AND
FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS THE RULE IN THE AREA. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TOMORROW. TROPICAL
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
LIKELY PUSH WWARD IN THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE S GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A SLOWLY WEAKENING SFC TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SWWARD THRU HONDURAS. AN
ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 17N85W. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE DIPS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NE OF PUERTO RICO.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N S
AMERICA FUELED AND DRIVEN BY THE MOIST UPPER ELY FLOW ON THE S
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
TROPICAL WAVES. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE CONVECTIVE FARTHER W
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE EPAC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH
IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS FROM JAMAICA TO SE CUBA
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING E OF 72W. TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE
TYPICAL 15-20 KT RANGE E OF 70W...WITH LIGHTER WINDS W OF THERE
DUE TO THE LOW PRES TROUGH. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE W CARIBBEAN THRU THU AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT WWARD IN THE
GULF LATE THIS WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MID-UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE W
ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N78W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N73W ALONG 27N75W 25N79W.
LIMITED MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FRONT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A TITLED
MID-UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. UPPER RIDGING FROM THIS
HIGH EXTENDS SWWARD TO VENEZUELA AND NEWARD TO 32N56W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 23N80W 27N73W 32N70W.
SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
BUT BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS SWARD. FARTHER EAST...A
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH CUTS THRU 32N29W 23N37W 15N46W. THE N BRANCH
OF THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N21W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS NEAR 34N44W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 10N32W 16N23W 20N16W. THIS UPPER HIGH
POSITION IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN
THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N46W DOMINATES THE SFC PRES PATTERN AND IS SUPPLYING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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