[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BASED ON THE LAST
FEW VIS PICTURES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...CLEAR WAVE
SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON THE VIS DERIVED WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY FIELDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
28W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER S AMERICA. LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER WEAK BUT IT DOES EXHIBIT SOME SIGNATURE. IT
IS APPROACHING A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND
MAY AID IN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AREA.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 5N40W 6N60W. A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST AND NOW IS LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 15W-18W OR SO
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON ITCZ CONVECTION...REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE U.S. FAR TO THE S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH AND COVERS NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1007 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N80W AND CROSSES N
FLORIDA TO 30N86W. A LINE OF STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER NE FLORIDA. DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY LOW BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50'S WHILE TYPICAL
HIGH 60'S AND LOW 70'S DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE S OF THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN
THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W. THE ONLY AREAS OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS IN THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER MEXICO DUE TO HEATING
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FORMER
TD 2-E AND A SMALL WEAKENING MCS OVER S LOUISIANA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NWARD INTO THE S GULF LATER THIS WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF DIGS AS FAR S AS
THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E AND
AND W OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS AND THE OTHER OVER THE N LESSER
ANTILLES.  AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W WITH A TROUGH RUNNING TO THE NE ALONG
20N82W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS
NEAR THE LOW WITH CONVECTION FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND SFC FORCING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BETWEEN 75W-83W. SOME OF THE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS IS FROM JAMAICA TO SE CUBA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W/79W IS
ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS AND OVER
PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER S
AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 68W-75W. MAINLY DRY AND
FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT E OF 75W WITH LIGHTER
AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS W OF 75W DUE TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE W CARIBBEAN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NE U.S. TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...SEE GULF OF
MEXICO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 58W-75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N62W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NWD TO 32N58W. AT THE
SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W
WITH SFC RIDGING DOMINATING THE PRES PATTERN E OF 70W.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF
55W N OF 14N UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH PRES.
IN THE UPPER LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...MID OCEANIC
TROUGH CUTS THRU 32N28W 25N39W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N45W. THIS
DEEP TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYERED LOW A FEW HUNDRED NM
E OF THE AZORES. ALL OF THE SFC FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ARE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W S OF 22N.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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