[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ALONG 39W/40W AT 05/0600 UTC...BUT
IT HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND FROM 2N
TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP TROPICAL PRECIPITATION IS FOUND WITH
THIS WAVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING
PUSHED OVER THE AREA OF THE WAVE...WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN
RELATED TO THIS WAVE HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING FROM
9N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WAS
OCCURRING SIX HOURS EARLIER.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 5N20W 3N28W 3N34W 3N39W 4N48W 4N52W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N
TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
48W AND 52W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT DURING THE LAST FIVE
HOURS...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING. SHOWERS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE GULF WATERS HAS
CONTRIBUTED SOME INSTABILITY TO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS WEAK IN THE GULF. ONLY PART OF
A 1012 MB ISOBAR CUTS INTO THE AREA FROM LOUISIANA SOUTHWARD
TO 23N92W...AND THEN IT CURVES TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WELL ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NORTH OF 19N. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N79W 14N83W...FROM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO
THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
NEAR CUBA AND THIS LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA ARE BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N...AT THE WESTERN
END OF A RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT...FROM A 1007 MB LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COAST OF GEORGIA...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CURVING INTO
ALABAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH.
A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE AZORES.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER THROUGH 32N26W 29N29W TO
25N39W TO 16N55W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER ACCOMPANIES THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO SURFACE FRONT IS SOUTH OF
30N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS
NEAR 33N45W.

$$
MT




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