[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
HIDING ANY TRUE WAVE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 57W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE SIGNATURE
OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM
74W-78W.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N35W 5N49W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 26W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N17W TO THE ITCZ AXIS
NEAR 8N13W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N FROM 45W-53W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC
DIPPING S INTO THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR 25N97W TO
THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N
OF THE REGION IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
ACROSS THE N GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST S OF MEXICO IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC/S MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N88W TO 14N70W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N E OF 67W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH MAINLY TOWARD CUBA AND NICARAGUA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM OVER NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 23N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W TO NE FLORIDA
NEAR 30N81W. A SECOND LOW/FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA BUT
CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS N
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 27N FROM 70W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 63W FROM
20N TO BEYOND 32N. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS
COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N IS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE
FROM THE N CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N67W.
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N E OF 40W. ASSOCIATED LOW/TROUGH
ARE N OF THE REGION. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS WEAK
INDISTINCT FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ALONG 12N E OF 31W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM 20W-65W WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N45W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 6N-20N E OF 34W...THUS
LIMITING CONVECTION IS THAT AREA.

$$
WALLACE




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