[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHED ALONG TO 35W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ THOUGH ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY IN THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED TO 56W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE SEEMS TO BE MOVING MUCH FASTER WITH A SURGE IN TRADEWINDS
BEHIND IT.  POSITIONING IS BASED ON A NORTHWARD BULGE OF THE
ITCZ AND GFS MODEL FIELDS.  THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MON SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE
LAST WAVE THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N W OF 52W OVER WATER WITH TSTMS
APPROACHING TRINIDAD.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT 10 TO
15 KT.  WAVE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HAVING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER WATER
THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW TSTMS WELL INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 5N17W 6N33W 4N45W 9N60W.  SCATTERED
WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 7N BETWEEN 40W-52W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 4N-7.5N BETWEEN 25W-32W AND N OF 2N BETWEEN
6W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT HAS PENETRATED DEEP INTO THE
AREA... NOW ACROSS N FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE WSW TO S OF
LAFAYETTE NEAR 28.5N92W.  THE FRONT IS NOW EFFECTIVELY
STATIONARY WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING EXCEPT
OVER LAND AREAS... WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S(!)
INTO SE LOUISIANA NEAR SLIDELL LAST NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE GULF COAST E OF TEXAS N OF THE FRONT LEAVING A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THOSE AREA... A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS IN S
FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE E COAST IS PREFERRED FOR TSTMS IN MEAN
WLY FLOW...A FEW PERHAPS SEVERE.  UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE
SW GULF WITH A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO.  MOIST SW FLOW
FROM TD 2-E COULD ENHANCE DIURNAL TSTMS OVER E MEXICO TODAY WITH
DEEP-LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER MOST OF MEXICO SUGGESTING A HIGH
CHANCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT DRY NLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OVER THE NRN
GULF COAST... KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR S
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD TO 31N
BETWEEN 70W-79W IN THE ATLANTIC AND 72W-82W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS JUST SW OF SWAN ISLAND DRIFTING WNW
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING TO THE NE OF THE LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  NEARBY UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH THE GENERAL WEAK INITIAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW.  A LITTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING A
FEW TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W.  FARTHER
E...UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR MARGARITA ISLAND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR BERMUDA.  ONLY A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MORE
CLOUDINESS IN THE ATLC PORTION OF THE RIDGE WITH HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTED AWAY FROM THE WEATHER IN THE BAHAMAS AND A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR 24N67W.  THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WITH UPPER TROUGHS PERIODICALLY COMING THROUGH TO INCREASE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHILE IN THE E CARIBBEAN.. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH EVERY
FEW DAYS.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH SITS FROM 29N36W TO 12N48W WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER THE TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT SAVE A
SMALL AREA OF TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF 28.5N55.5W.  LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AZORES IS CAUSING BROAD TROUGHING IN THE E ATLC N OF
25N AND DRAGGING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG
30N22W TO 26N24W.  REINFORCING TROUGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
30N25W TO 27N34W WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NW OF THE FEATURE AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.  AZORES HIGH IS SHIFTED WESTWARD
TO NEAR 32N46W BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LOW.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
GENERALLY JUST A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AND
CONSIDERABLY BELOW IN THE NE ATLC.  RIDGE AXIS FROM THE AZORES
HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST S OF ANDROS ISLAND.  IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC... UPPER HIGH IS OVER NW SENEGAL WITH RIDGE
AXIS WSW TO 12N28W 6N38W THEN WNW TO NEAR TRINIDAD.  PLENTY OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS FUELING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ITCZ W OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE



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