[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29/30W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE
BURIED IN THE ITCZ. THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND
NOT THAT ABUNDANT IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE
ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE...NOW AT
LEAST SCATTERED...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 44W AND
50W...AND STILL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 10N63W FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N12W 6N22W 6N31W 5N38W 5N44W 5N47W 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVES. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SURINAME INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
GUYANA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT..

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE AREA OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 106W AND 122W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...OVER
INTERIOR MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE REACHES 26N AND IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 107W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF 20N100W...PROBABLY HAVING
SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 17.2N102W AT 04/0300 UTC. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND
FINALLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 27N100W 26N90W 32N79W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N80W...TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N91W. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS IN THE EASTERN GULF.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE INTERIOR MEXICO RIDGE
EASILY REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVERS SOME OF THE AREA FROM
COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING PRETTY MUCH
EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 12N82W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
18N83W AND 21N82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 35N60W WITH A TROUGH
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR
30N60W 27N64W 25N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS GO FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF
IT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N75W. A WEAK RIDGE IS ALONG 55W
NORTH OF 16N. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N32W. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES
FROM 25N32W TO 23N38W AND 22N46W. A TROUGH IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN 80 NM TO 120 NM OF IT...BETWEEN 24NW AND 39W.
LINES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 44W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
CLOUDINESS.

$$
MT


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