[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44/45W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66/67W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER VENEZUELA...WHERE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS SEEN ACROSS NW VENEZUELA...INCLUDING ALSO LAKE
MARACAIBO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N26W 4N35W 3N52W. CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL AND
SURINAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS SURROUNDED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF WEST OF 90W WHILE A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES OVER EASTERN U.S. DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N81W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS
N FLORIDA AND THE GULF TO 25N94W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
NARROW LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER N
FLORIDA...BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND LAKE CITY.  OTHER SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF WITHIN 60-80 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A DRY AIR MASS INVADING THE N GULF COAST. NLY WINDS
BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN FROM TROPICAL DEPRESION
TWO-E IN THE EPAC ARE SPREDING OUT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...
INCLUDING MEXICO CITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF ALSO DIGS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF
75W. INTERESTING SURFACE FEATURE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST GFS RUN MOVES THE LOW WWD INTO NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AS IT ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS
DOMINATES THE BASIN MAINLY EAST OF 75W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A TROUGH HEADING TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 29N61W 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-80 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A VERY BROAD
DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LARGE 1002 MB LOW IN THE E ATLC AND
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 25N33W. THIS FRONT IS THEN BROKEN
AND RESUMES AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N47 TO 32N87W AND
BEYOND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ALONG 30N25W 21N34W. NARROW BANDS OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
33N49W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
GR



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