[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CURVATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TSTM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE FARTHER EAST...THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL
DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SURROUND THE
WAVE AXIS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WHILE
MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...IT STILL DOES
SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. A PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 4N35W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF 7W N OF 2N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AXIS IS SURROUNDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS...MOST ORGANIZED W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND N PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MEXICO STRETCHING NWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE
EPAC. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW
OVER S CAROLINA AND ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE NW GULF ALONG 31N83W 28N89W 27N94W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
FROM 28N85W ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING SEWARD.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER LIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE LOW OVER N MEXICO/S TEXAS THAT GENERATED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED.
SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE N PORTION OF THE REGION...SINKING
SEWARD. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE ENTIRE GULF...NLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND E TO SELY ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PRESS SEWARD...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF DIGS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY W
FROM YESTERDAY NOW CENTERED NEAR 12N56W. THE MAIN SFC FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN IS A 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW PORTION NEAR 12N81W. A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL WAS DETACHED FROM ANY
CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FAR
N OF THE LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND SPREADING TOWARDS CUBA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 74W-81W. GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W IS GENERATING A PATCH OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-66W. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...LIGHTER W OF 78W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY PULLING EWARD IN THE W ATLC NEAR 33N63W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARDS THE N BAHAMAS
ISLANDS. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 30N62W 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  FARTHER EAST...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LARGE 1003 MB LOW IN THE E ATLC AND ENTERS
THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 25N36W. THIS FRONT IS THEN BROKEN AND
RESUMES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N45W 32N87W 35N66W. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES MIGHT BE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR 28N51W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ALONG 30N25W 22N35W. ONLY A LINE OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A 1023 MB HIGH LIES TO THE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N49W. SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM
22N29W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 11N18W PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN
THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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