[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE
ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE
ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. ONE CELL OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
10N63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND THE ODDS ARE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE PROBABLY
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN INTERIOR COSTA RICA AND THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 7N23W 7N26W 5N33W 5N40W 5N44W 5N48W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 5N30W
4N42W 3N52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 26N112W IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...OVER INTERIOR MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE REACHES
26N AND IS BETWEEN 90W AND 107W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EAST
TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...
IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 03/0000 UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE REACHES
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 26N. A WEAK AND LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED MIDDLE
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THIS LOW CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK
BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W SOUTH OF 20N.
MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWS BETWEEN 50W AND 64W
SOUTH OF 22N. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N78W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW TO WESTERN JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING UP AND THUS THE
PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING AT THIS MOMENT. THE GFS MODEL TRIES
TO DEVELOP THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR
12N78W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N65W. THE TROUGH
WITH THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE FROM 29N68W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 58W AND THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH RUNS FROM 21N63W TO
27N62W BEYOND 33N59W. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE
THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N34W TO 25N43W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM 25N43W TO 29N52W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 75 NM TO
150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM 16N36W TO 24N25W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. LINES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF 31N24W 24N30W 21N39W 21N47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

$$
MT






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