[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE WAVE IS BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS WAVE IS
ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO HAVE BEEN REPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W REMAINS MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER SE NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N22W 5N30W 5N42W 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-40W. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
INLAND OVER TEXAS...NE MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWIRLING AROUND
THE LOW OVER THIS AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS S AND SE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE N
QUADRANT OF THE GULF ALONG 28N87W 25N89W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TRIGGERED BY A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. SFC WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE
NE GULF SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM A CLOSED
HIGH CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N54W. WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N75W TO A 1009 LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 13N-17W BETWEEN 74W-80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA IN PART DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO
DEVELOP THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUT...OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TRIGGERED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUD AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN MAINLY EAST OF 75W.
OF NOTE...MOST OF JUNE STORMS ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF
LOCATED NEAR 33N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
EXTENDING ALONG 55W FROM A CLOSED HIGH IN THE TROPIC NEAR
14N54W. A VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
31N28W 27N35W 25N42W. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS 150-200 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N27W 22N40W. NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N66W TO 25N74W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO OVER W AFRICA AND THE CANARY/MADEIRA
ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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