[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 22W/23W S OF 11N MOVING W ABOUT 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EVIDENT. WAVE
IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. DESPITE MUCH OF
THE WAVE BEING OVER LAND THE WAVE STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W REMAINS MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5N30W 3N47W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
THE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-27W AND
33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IN THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013
MB LOW NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW IN THE EXTREME NW
GULF FROM N MEXICO TO E TEXAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 23N97W ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH. ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE E GULF NEAR
27N86W. THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT AS IT IS MAINLY A
LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW THICKER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 86W-88W.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TRIGGERED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW GULF
AND UPPER RIDGING IN THE E GULF. SFC WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK SFC FEATURES EXCEPT
FOR 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE N PORTION OF THE REGION ENHANCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 14N55W WITH UPPER RIDGING STRETCHING WWARD TO 72W.
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS W OF THERE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY S OF 16N AND W OF 72W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009
MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED IN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
NEAR 11N78W. GFS IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THIS LOW AND
TRACKING IT TO THE N WHILE OTHER COMPUTER MODELS ARE LESS
INTERESTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TRIGGERED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUD CLOVER WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM 15-20 KT
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH AN UPPER LOW
N OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS GENERATING SUBSIDENCE
N OF 28W W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE BEING GENERATED
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. AN
ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ALONG 28N67W 25N74W IS ENHANCING SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY. A BROAD AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 10N55W WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
NWD ALONG 55W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N28W 27N37W 27N48W
THEN AS A SFC TROUGH TO 30N53W. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N27W 23N37W 23N49W.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ONLY CONSIST OF NARROW BANDS OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHOWERS. SFC RIDGING
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 9N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N61W RESTRICTING ITCZ CONVECTION TO MAINLY S OF
10N.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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