[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS BECOMING BETTERED DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND IS CLEARLY OBSERVED
ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED
WAVE MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W
COVERING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N32W 4N45W 5N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 6W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-33W AND S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROWING SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE FAR
NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N97W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA/E BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N90W N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST OVER ALABAMA
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN
88W-96W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC IS GIVING THE S
GULF MOSTLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF E OF 84W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N85W TO 25N87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER WESTERLY FLOW NOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM E TO W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE S CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
ITCZ AXIS AND A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N FROM 73W-84W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
COMPLIMENTS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE AREA. OTHER
THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND FAR E GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 65W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N64W SW TO 26N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 66W-77W WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST
INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 57W FROM THE TROPICS TO 32N.
VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
21N BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N30W SW TO 27N36W CONTINUING W AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
26N42W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE REGION WITHIN 350/400 NM OF LINE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW
THROUGH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N21W TO S OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR 21N34W THEN NW TO BEYOND 31N54W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG
9N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W RESTRICTING ITCZ
CONVECTION TO S OF 10N.

$$
WALLACE



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