[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS IS
A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE BUT IT HAS KEPT A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE IS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC ITCZ
AND IS WELL-REPRESENTED BY COMPUTER MODELS.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 52W-56W.  WAVE SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 81W/82W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT.  THE WAVE COULD
HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N.  A 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THIS WAVE
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W AS VERIFIED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHIP REPORTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N40W 8N60W.  A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 6W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
25W-30W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN
TO THE SURFACE FROM AN UPPER LOWER LOW .  RAINS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN
91W-94W.  A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W.  FURTHER E... CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR 27N97W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 85W
WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF 85W.
FLORIDA IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N
OF 20N AND E OF 85W.   EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS
CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM TEXAS TO N
FLORIDA.  ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  FURTHER E... NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-85W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W...AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N W OF 65W.   EXPECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 70W TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 25N68W
22N792W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 70W-79W.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N58W TO 28N70W.
A 1016 MB LOW IS ON THIS TROUGH NEAR 29N61W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 56W-58W.   ANOTHER TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N35W 24N41W.  A 1020 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-85W.   A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 12N16W.

$$
FORMOSA


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