[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
SLIGHT MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS
BASED UPON CONTINUITY DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N30W 5N48W 7N60W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 10N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE NW GULF WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W NNW TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST OVER
MISSISSIPPI GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO TO
CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE SW
GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA
EXTENDING OVER E GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN E OF 85W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W.
UPPER DRY AIR IN PLACE IS KEEPING THE E GULF CLEAR AND
RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 84W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND E
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM
70W-84W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO 15N70W
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PANAMA AND THE CLOSE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ARE GENERATING THE CONVECTION IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER
FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING
THE AREA W OF 63W ACROSS FLORIDA. DRY UPPER AIR IS LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N W OF 74W TO THE COAST OF SE
FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 57W FROM THE TROPICS TO NEAR 32N. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 32N59W ALONG 27N66W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 56W-67W. VERY BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E
OF 50W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 55W WITH
A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N36W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N21W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 10N40W
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W.

$$
WALLACE



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