[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 15N. A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW/WAVE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST
AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
71W-80W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... BUT AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
ENCHANTED ISLAND. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SAN JUAN REPORTED 2.78
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE WAVE IS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N30W 13N45W 9N52W 8N60W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 16W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40/60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-30W AND FROM 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS REMAINS OVER THE
AREA...ONE IS OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE SECOND ONE HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE COVERING SOUTH MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE SE GULF. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE SE U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO EASTERN TEXAS. BROAD
10-15 SELY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS RIDGE HAS BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE ACROSS THE
E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH
RUNS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
NEAR 27N-60W TO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE SE U.S. WHERE THERE IS A
SECONDARY CENTER WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE VALUE OF 1018 MB.
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N-30N EAST OF
60 W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E ATLC N OF 26N WEST
OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W. A HIGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM A HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 17N16W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 19/20N. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND OVER THE ATLC FROM 20N-30N EAST OF
50W.

$$
GR



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