[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N
TO 18N INCLUDING REACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS RIGHT NOW...BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM
ST.KITTS AND NEVIS TO ANGUILLA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM SIX HOURS NOW IS NOT
APPARENT.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA OF BAHAMAS-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA-TO-NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH.
THE FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS ANTICYCLONIC AT THE UPPER LEVELS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 9N IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...
PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 17N16W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 9N39W 8N45W 7N60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA
COAST FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 49W AND 53W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 11W...FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AFTER PASSING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.
A SECOND LOW CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM EXIST FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W.
A THIRD LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST
FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ABOUT 360 NM WEST OF THE
64W/65W EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT APPARENT NOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN/BAHAMAS LOW CENTER AND TROUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF CENTRAL
CUBA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF URABA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT
100 NM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TO NORTH FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ONE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N28W AND ANOTHER IS
NEAR 28N32W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 37N54W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THIS LOW...GOING AS FAR
SOUTH AS 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WEST OF 70W.

$$
MT


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