[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N60W TO 13N62W
TO 5N62W MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A DEFINITE
INVERTED V SHAPE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND
70W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES.

A CENTRAL-MOVING-INTO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 23N77W IN CUBA TO 18N79W 5N79W MOVING WEST 20 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF
BAHAMAS-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH. THE FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ANTICYCLONIC AT THE UPPER LEVELS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
ITCZ THAN TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 14N24W 10N39W 8N44W 7N50W 8N61W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW AT SOME
LEVEL IS APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
EXIST FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS EXIST FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AFTER PASSING OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A SECOND LOW
CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE LAST THIRTY HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS ON
TOP OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 77W AND
81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 360 NM WEST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WAVE AROUND 16N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS LOW CENTER AND TROUGH APPEARS TO
HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WHILE THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL-INTO-THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT
380 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...TO NORTH FLORIDA...AND TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 25N27W AND ANOTHER IS NEAR 28N30W.  A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N54W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST
OF THIS LOW...GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W...
AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

$$
MT

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