[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270025 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

CORRECTION TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN TEXAS ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TEXAS...AND IN ADJACENT GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N
WEST OF 92W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS AND FORECAST FROM YOUR LOCAL NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, AND STORM SUMMARIES FROM THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER
ACUS43 KWBC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDSCCNS3 FOR ADDITIONAL
AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAPID
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND
40W TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N39W 15N41W 5N41W
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND
43W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH
OF 23N IS MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS MOVED MORE TO
THE WEST AT 26/1800 UTC IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 45 NM NORTH
OF BARBADOS TO GUADELOUPE AND EVENTUALLY THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND
82W. THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING THROUGH
GUATEMALA INTO MEXICO...WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND 95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 16N17W 15N23W 14N28W 8N42W 10N53W 14N59W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...AND
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N100W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO EAST TEXAS
AND BEYOND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS PART OF THE REST OF THE GULF
WATERS EAST OF THE RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN GEORGIA. NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY COVERS
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...AND FLOWS DIRECTLY TO
A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...AND THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL PART NORTHWARD...EAST OF THE
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND
HOUSTON. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF
THIS TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY WITH THE
63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE...IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RECEIVING SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AS A RESULT OF BEING ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLOW
AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N64W LOW CENTER.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE WEST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 83W OVER THE
OPEN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N45W TO 34N51W TO BERMUDA TO 28N73W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1020 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N30W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES...AND AWAY FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 40N BETWEEN 18W
AND 54W. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE NOT RELATED
TO ANY FORM OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE IS NEAR 32N55W
AND MOVING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 27N64W AT THE NORTHERN
END OF THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE. A WEAKENING LOW CENTER IS NEAR
26N71W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 26W
AND 60W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES THE 63W/64W TROPICAL
WAVE.

$$
MT


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