[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK...NARROW LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS INLAND AND NOT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 10N28W 7N37W 6N43W 2N51W AND
JUST S OF PANAMA AND OVER COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 15N-19N E OF 18W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 36W-46W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. BROAD UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE EXTENDS S TO THE N GULF COAST AND A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF S OF 23N W OF 90W
ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE FAR W ATLC
AND FROM OVER CUBA TO JUST E OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
E OF 87W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 90W. ALSO
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1015 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 83W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF FLORIDA. AN INDUCED UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 13N77W.
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S HAITI
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA FROM 10N76W TO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W ALONG 27N71W TO AN
UPPER HIGH NEAR 33N63W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION
NEAR 35N71W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FROM
26N68W ACROSS BERMUDA TO WELL N OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-28N W OF 74W TO
OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N44W WITH
FLOW WITHIN 200 NM. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 22N17W ALONG 20N39W TO
20N56W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE ATLC E
OF 65W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA
OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
S OF 26N E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE


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