[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 37.4N 73.3W AT 20/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 235 MILES S OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 320 MILES SW OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING NNE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...SO ANY STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. CONVECTION HAS
MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HORUS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 36N74W TO 40N72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 77W/78W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE NE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 10N40W 8N46W 7N57W
11N79W 9N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 3N26W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
NEAR 8N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWING THE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF COAST INTO AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N W OF
91W. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W
COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 20N FROM 91W-95W. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
NE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
PANAMA NNW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BERYL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AROUND A BROAD UPPER
HIGH...WHICH SHOULD DRAW THE STORM AWAY FROM THE NE US. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED S OF BERYL NEAR 32N78W WHICH DIPS S OVER W ATLC
TO 28N W OF 77W TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A SECOND ELONGATED UPPER LOW
IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N68W TO 31N72W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO NO F HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. THE
RESULTING UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS GIVING THE
AREA ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N W OF 76W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA E COAST INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AT THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF
22N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-73W. A LARGE UPPER
HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
26N FROM 43W-62W. THIS IS AIDING IN THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-34N BETWEEN 60-66W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST IS AGAIN EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
7N-25N E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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