[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N63W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS VERY
CLOSE TO GUADELOUPE AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WAVE WILL CROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY...ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THESE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 85W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. A DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N30W 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N EAST OF 40W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT.
THE AREA IS RELATIVELY FREE OF CONVECTION THANKS TO A MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS COAST  WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING MOSTLY E ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/WESTERN CUBA.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N63W.
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BASIN.  TYPICAL
SURFACE TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND VERY CLOSE TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N63W. SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N74W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 35N45W CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.  A LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 25N63W.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N27W.

$$
GR


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