[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG
THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE IS OBVIOUS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N71W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW CENTER TO HAITI...CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON TOP OF THE WAVE AND THE TROUGH ALSO
FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DRY AIR.

...THE ITCZ...
10N15W 8N20W 7N30W 7N40W 7N47W 7N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 20W...AND
WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N28W 6N37W 6N46W 6N51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N79W TO TAMPA
FLORIDA TO A 24N86W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW TO
A 19N104W SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 30N...TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS REACHING 31N79W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM CROOKED ISLAND TO CAT
ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
34N70W 30N74W 27N75W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FROM CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND MOVING ACROSS TRINIDAD
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
67W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA MAY BE ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION. NO PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE COSTA RICA COASTAL
WATERS OF 10N80W TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE WATERS
FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 81W...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 28N68W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 22N63W TO 28N68W BEYOND 33N68W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
IS COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 34N37W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER TO 31N45W 29N60W 28N64W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
23N57W 30N52W BEYOND 33N50W.

$$
MT


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