[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N MOVING W
15-20 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AND
IS SPREADING S OF THE ITCZ. WEAK TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N36W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 35W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 60/90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM
38W-42W. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8.5N-10N. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 72W ON THE 12Z
SURFACE MAP IS RELOCATED ALONG 79W/80W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS OVER PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND PARTS OF COSTA RICA. THIS
CONVECTION IS ENHANCING BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG 97W S OF 22N MOVING W
15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N33W 7N40W 8N53W 8N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
80/100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W AND BETWEEN
40W-43.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NE
GULF N OF 25N. THIS STRONG TROUGH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BAND OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND TSTM EXTENDS EAST TO WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 25N-27N EAST OF 90W. WIND VELOCITIES ARE BASICALLY
ONLY 10 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS YESTERDAY
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD...SPREADING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN
HALF OF NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA AND NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 31N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE E GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 80 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N52W. ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-60W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST IS REACHING 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS.  BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 57W-74W
CENTERED NNW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N68W EXTENDING S INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING NW...PULLING A BAND OF MOISTURE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROAD
UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N34W AND
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25W-55W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC EAST OF 25W.

$$
GR






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