[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE...BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 22N MOVING WNW 20-25 KT.
WAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N34W 8N43W 6N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 26W-45W AND WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 6N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE FAR E GULF ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF 84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT DEVELOP INLAND OVER FLORIDA DUE
TO THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE UPPER FLOW SURROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WED AND
RETURN TO FLORIDA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
FLORIDA E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE W OVER THE
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 15N FROM 73W-86W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA N OF 17N FROM
74W-82W INCLUDING HAITI AND JAMAICA. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
NICARAGUA. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS
ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA THUS GIVING THE AREA S OF 12N SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF
74W WITH A NARROW RIDGE JUST TO THE E WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTED DOWN JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO 30N.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 29N BETWEEN 72W-79W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W-65W WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N63W AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N46W.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY UPPER AIR...ONLY CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 23N31W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM
24W-40W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W
ANCHORED N OF THE REGION. AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
TROPICAL FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE


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