[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND
26W EAST OF THE WAVE...ALSO IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ON TOP OF THIS WAVE IS FROM THE NORTHWEST NORTH OF 15N/16N...
AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF 15N/16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE RIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N67W INTO THE MONA PASSAGE TO 18N68W
OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W
IN THE AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 12N ALONG 83W/84W...
OVER COSTA RICA...MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN COASTAL SECTIONS FROM PANAMA
AT 80W TO COSTA RICA AT 83W...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN A FEW CELLS ARE IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W...
FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 104W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 103W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N17W 9N26W 8N29W 6N40W 6N44W 6N51W 7N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N34W 8N38W 8N41W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N20W 8N32W
6N42W 5N46W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N115W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE LOW CENTER TO 26N103W IN INTERIOR
MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS
NEAR 32N99W. A TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE REST OF INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH
OF 27N WEST OF 100W IS BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM ACAPULCO
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THE ACAPULCO RIDGE...AND THE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A 26N79W BAHAMAS-TO-FLORIDA MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
CURLING AROUND THE 26N79W LOW CENTER...WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM
OF THE CENTER FROM SOUTH TO WEST...AND WITHIN 200 TO 400 NM
AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND NOT COUNTING THE MOISTURE BEING
GENERATED AT A DISTANCE OF 200 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER AT
AN INWARD DIRECTION TO THE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM SOUTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST BY 90 NM TO THE ACTUAL COASTLINE. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF SOME CLOUD CELLS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE WARMING...AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
DISSIPATING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 9.5N
BETWEEN 76W AND 79W FROM COLOMBIA TO THE GULF OF URABA TO
PANAMA...PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 8.5N BETWEEN 77.5W AND 81.5W PROBABLY
ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 79W...WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 26N79W BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER.
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW SPILLS OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...FROM
THE SAME FLOW REGIME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOSTLY COVERS JUST CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT HAS BEEN DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM THE TROPICAL RIDGE GOES FROM THE ENTIRE VENEZUELA
COAST NORTHEASTWARD...AND IT CUTS ACROSS 60W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 19N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 26N79W IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
31N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W. YESTERDAY'S MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
29N45W HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD A BIT AND NOW IS NEAR 31N46W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN A 225 NM RADIUS OF THIS CENTER.
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 250 NM
AWAY FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 11N40W 24N36W BEYOND 33N32W...SURROUNDED BY MORE DRY
AIR. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N12W OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N18W. A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF AFRICA.

$$
MT


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