[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 20 KT.  THIS
IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE V-SHAPE ON
SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  SHOWERS AND TSTM
CHANCES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...
OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW...THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE S OF 15N.  TUE LOOKS TO BE THE DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN PUERTO RICO.  A GALE MAY
OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FOR WED.  SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 11N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT.  ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE CONFINED TO
COLOMBIA IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER YUCATAN ALONG 88W/89W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
A LARGE BLOWUP OVER TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF 16N AND OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT.  THESE TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHORTLY AND DIE
OUT OVERNIGHT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 7N25W 7N40W 11N54W 10N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N33W MAY BE RELATED TO A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE THAT COULD BE ANALYZED ON THE NEXT MAP.  ISOLATED
WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 22W ALSO PROBABLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH COULD BE ANALYZED ON THE
NEXT MAP.  OVERALL ITCZ CONVECTION IS QUITE WEAK OWING TO A
STRONGLY NEGATIVE (SINKING) PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SE TEXAS.  THIS IS QUITE A DIRTY HIGH AROUND
THE EDGES HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF TSTMS IN THE NW AND E GULF.
THE FIRST AREA IS BEING ASSISTED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
95W/96W AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N W OF
89W.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A WAVE.. NOW A WEAK TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSISTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA BUT IS NOW
WEAKENING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIMITING THE LAND-BASED
INSTABILITY.  A FEW TSTMS REMAIN IN DEEP S FLORIDA W OF MIAMI.
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND
FLORIDA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH.  AT THE
SURFACE.. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO GIVE
ELY FLOW OF ABOUT 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HISPANIOLA TO NW COLOMBIA THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTROLS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM A SOUTHWARD-
DISPLACED RIDGE OVER NE S AMERICA.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS LIMITING TSTMS OVER WATER SUBSTANTIALLY E OF 81W WITH AREAS
IN THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO SEEING MORE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON TSTMS.  UPPER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN THE ITCZ FARTHER S
THAN AVERAGE WITH A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF TSTMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY NOW OVER PANAMA AND SOUTHWARD.  RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL TSTMS OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.  INCREASING MOISTURE IS LIKELY FOR
TOMORROW FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A
TRADE WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE... POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO
NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A STRONG ATLC
RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 70W.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CAUSING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT REGION.  NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 25N66W SOUTHWARD TO
HISPANIOLA WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.  MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 26N47W MOVING
NORTHWARD.  LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO
18N WITH WLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE LOW W OF 45W.
THIS STRONG MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS MUCH DEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY.. PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE MJO.  THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH A WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA.  IN
THE E ATLC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 20W N OF 26N CAUSING A
WESTWARD-DISPLACEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.. 1030 MB NEAR
36N46W.  STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES PERSIST IN THE TRADEWIND
BELT S OF 20N W OF 30W N OF THE ITCZ... ONE REASON ATLC WATERS
HAVEN'T WARMED AS MUCH AS LAST YEAR.  ALOFT... RIDGING IS FROM W
MAURITANIA TO 17N40W BRINGING PLENTY OF ELY WINDS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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