[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 14N MOVING WNW 10-15 KT.
WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 20N75W TO 27N71W MOVING WNW 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND A WAVE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 12.5N74.5W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N23W 7N46W 9N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-20W
AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 28W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE W GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST
TO E TEXAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...ONLY WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 79W. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N FROM 71W-79W. THIS AREA IS RATHER DRY
WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
16N FROM 63W-72W WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 77W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 27N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N50W
EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO TO 30N65W THEN NE BEYOND
33N62W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N FROM 63W-72W. A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N FROM 32W-54W
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N38W TO A PAIR OF
SMALL MID/UPPER LOWS NEAR 25N43W AND 22N49W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W EXTENDING W TO 14N27W
AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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