[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 6N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N50W 2N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W IN
AN AREA OF AN UNDEFINED AMOUNT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO
10N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W...IN AN AREA OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
HEATING AND TRADEWIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA RIGHT
NOW. THE TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHERE AN ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HAS BEEN RESTING. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN
BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...
WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N65W
27N73W 24N80W 21N85W...RUNNING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
INTERIOR MEXICO. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MORE PROBABLY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF CLOUDS THAN IN ANY OTHER PART OF
THE CLOUDINESS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF 90W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE REST IS
WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HINT OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS FOUND JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER GOES FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE
25/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MOVES ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 20N
EAST OF 60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS AT ITS HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION NORTH AND EAST OF 14N60W 14N70W 17N75W 20N76W
WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 22N/24N. BETWEEN 20W AND
80W. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF MOROCCO BEYOND 35N14W...
IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW IS PASSING THROUGH 32N10W
30N11W 25N22W JUST OFF THE MOROCCO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM 28N24W TO THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N33W TO 25N49W AND
24N66W AND FINALLY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.

$$
MT


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