[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10 2N25W 2N27W 2N40W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR 30.5N-81W
THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N90W 22N93W.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THERE TO THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR COATZACOALCOS. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING ALSO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF MEXICO...MAINLY THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
THE GULF SW UPPER WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W FROM 16N-22N. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS WITH
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. THE TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR JAMAICA. THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 82 W. VERY DRY AIR COVERS THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THANKS TO A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N45W.  IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-21W
THEN EXTENDS SW TO 25N-35W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 14W/15W
CROSSING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR JAMAICA EXTENDS NEWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLC TO BEYOND 32N60W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W
OF 30W WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
40W-70W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N
OF 15N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF
80 TO 100 KT IS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-40W E ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THEN ENE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR
18N-16W.

$$
GR

WWWW
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