[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N28W 3N41W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 24W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS
FROM 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES INTO THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH
A SERIES OF LOWS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND FROM NW ALABAMA
TO A 1016 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO A 1015 MB LOW IN THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N94W EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER FAR NE MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W. BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
27N FROM 86W-93W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVE DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND
IS LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING WITH THE DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF A
LINE FROM 19N80W TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 16N89W. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY
CLEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 24N69W AND COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 43W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N W OF 40W WITH THE DRIEST AIR
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 38W-66W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E
ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 18N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE
AXIS TILTED THROUGH 32N25W TO 18N32W. THE ASSOCIATED 1011 MB LOW
IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N26W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG 26N25W TO 20N27W. BROAD RIDGE AXIS WELL INLAND
OVER AFRICA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W COAST OF AFRICA
AND INTO THE FAR E ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-32N E OF
23W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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