[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 250 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 33W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 1032 MB SURFACE
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE WESTERN GULF...WEST OF
90W...THE FLOW HAS TURNED SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF. THE GFS
FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY
AND TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. COLD AIR DRIVEN BY
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
ESPECIALLY EAST OF 70W...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MOVES EASTWARD TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WEST OF 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER E
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 33N14W 30N17W 26N17W.  BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NAMELY FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
30W-60W...AND FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 10W-50W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EXISTS FROM 50W EASTWARD TO AFRICA NORTH 0F 15N.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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