[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N13W 5N21W 2N32W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 7W-16W AND N
OF 1N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-28W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT
TO OVER CUBA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT
IN THE W ATLC AND COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES OFF
LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 95W. AT UPPER LEVELS...DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD HAVING REACHED 19N
WITH THE AXIS NOW ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR COVERS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEING DRAWN INTO
THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 75W. SURFACE WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS REMAINING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BEFORE WEAKENING ON SUN
INTO MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W JUST W
OF JAMAICA TO 17N80W BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N83W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF CUBA. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE SAME
AREA BUILDING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS
FROM OVER S AMERICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN RATHER FAIR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN WITH LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM S
AMERICA NEAR 10N62W N OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N57W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 16N FROM 37W-48W. THE REMNANTS OF ZETA IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N53W. E OF THE UPPER TROUGH A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 19N E OF 20W WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA N OF 19N E OF 50W WITH ONLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
SWEEPING E TO 44W. IN THE E TROPICS...WESTERLY JET REMAINS WITH
80 TO 100 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM 14N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
18N16W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N
BETWEEN 45W-65W.

$$
WALLACE



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