[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 50.3W AT 06/2100
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ZETA HAS WEAKENED TO A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRL WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS OF 06/2100 UTC THE FINAL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN WRITTEN ON ZETA FINALLY ENDING THE RECORD BREAKING 2005
HURRICANE SEASON.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N20W 4N25W 3N32W EQ40W TO S
OF THE EQUATOR AT 2S48W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-9N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
COLD AIR DRIVEN BY STRONG NNWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. THIS IS
THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
TYPICAL COLD AIR OVER WARM WATER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N102W.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS HIGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 31N85W 20N87W. DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE GULF
OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TRADEWINDS NEAR 10 KTS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 75W. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W.  THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW
CLEARED THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 87W. BROKEN MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAITI.  THE GFS
FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LIE
FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  THEREAFTER THE
FRONT MAY STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
WEAK FLOW EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70W. SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH
EXISTS WEST OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N79W.  NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER...COLD AIR DRIVEN BY NNW
FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...T.D. ZETA IS
DISSIPATING TO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N26W
IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS HIGH TO
SLIDE TO THE WEST HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TROUGHING IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST OF 70W. BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ZETA. WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-20N E OF 55W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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