[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 49.3W AT 06/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
WELL W OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND
IMPINGING DRY UPPER AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 44W-48W. GRADUAL WEAKENING REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N27W 3N35W S OF THE EQUATOR
TO 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 2N26W 2N29W ACROSS THE AXIS NEAR 4N31W TO 6N36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE GULF NOW EXTENDING
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W
ALONG 20N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N95W CREATING GALE FORCE SURFACE
WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE S OF 28N E OF 95W TO THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE FROM COVERING THE US FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES EASTWARD AND THE GULF N OF 23N. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE
FROM 30N81W 25N90W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ACROSS FLORIDA
WITH FROST POSSIBLE AS FAR S AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES DUE TO A LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC. SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
ENTIRE REGION DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM DEEP IN
THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 5N44W NW ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF WILL ENTER THE NW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NNE TO BEYOND 32N66W TO COVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W
WITH A WEAK SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W GENERATING BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 20N FROM 45W-55W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH IS TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N55W ALONG 28N56W TO 25N59W. ZETA IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ANOTHER RIDGE BETWEEN 28W-45W WITH QUIET WEATHER
BENEATH THE RIDGE. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF
18N E OF 28W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT S OF AZORES
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N15W TO 31N25W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...STRONG
WESTERLY JET WITH 70 TO 90 KT WINDS FROM 15N53W TO 12N30W. DRY
AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 12N-20N W OF 30W. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM OVER THE AZORES TO NEAR
22N38W WITH MODERATE/STRONG TRADES E OF 40W.

$$
WALLACE



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