[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 48.2W AT 05/2100 UTC
MOVING NW 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  ZETA IS HANGING ON WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE.  A COMBINATION OF
STRONG SHEAR... GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THOUGH ZETA HAS NOT RESPONDED TO
THESE CONDITIONS LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE ERN SEMICIRCLE.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N23W 3N42W EQ48W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 2N44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
23W-27W BETWEEN 2N-4N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 30N85.5W TO SCREAMING SOUTHWARD JUST PAST
TAMPICO MEXICO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.  SCATTERED LOW/MID
CLOUDS ARE S OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST.  AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US FROM TENNESSEE THRU SE LOUISIANA.  SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT IN THE SW GULF.
FRONT ALSO PROMISES TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ACROSS FLORIDA WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FAR TO
THE S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY QUIET IN THE AREA WITH LIGHTER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES DUE TO A
LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC.  10-15 KT TRADES COVER
THE REGION WITH A LITTLE CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 81W.   SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE REGION S OF 20N DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NRN S AMERICA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
COVER MOST OF THE BASIN.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF MOSQUITOS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF WILL ENTER
THE NW AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.  THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT ENTERS EARLY SAT
WITH A CLOUDY WET DAY LIKELY ON SUN FOR MOST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NNE TO COVER
THE W ATLC W OF 60W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE N OF 25N W OF
60W WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.  STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 54W N OF 21N. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W TO 29N57W DISSIPATING TO THE
TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS.  SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM 25.5N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  TROUGH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
ZETA AND MAY FURTHER HELP TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM.  EAST OF THE
TROUGH THERE IS ANOTHER RIDGE BETWEEN 30W-45W WITH QUIET WEATHER
BENEATH THE RIDGE.  IN THE DEEP TROPICS...STRONG WESTERLY JET
WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
NEAR 16N55W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N15W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES
THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 30W.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE E
ATLC WITH STRONG TRADES E OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE

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