[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA REGAINS TROPICAL STATUS. IT IS CENTERED NEAR
22.4N 47.6W AT 05/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SINCE THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE
EAST AND EVEN CLOSER OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21.5N-23N BETWEEN 45W-46.5W.
T.S. ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR
ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W THEN S OF
THE EQUATOR TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST NEAR -1N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180/200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W. CLUSTER OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 2N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 30N85.5W TO INLAND JUST OVER BROWNSVILLE
AND NE MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THEN E OVER THE GULF WEST OF 90W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG S
OVER SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO. WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.
THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF N OF 25N...NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THE WESTERN ATLC JUST NORTH OF 30N. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA BAY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN AROUND 18 HOURS. THIS FRONT
ALSO PROMISES TO BRING COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE OF
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA
BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE REGION S OF 20N DUE TO AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES.  NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER
MOST OF THE BASIN.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF
OF MOSQUITOS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF WILL ENTER THE
NW AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AS THE DAY GOES BY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NNE TO COVER
THE W ATLC W OF 60W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 55W N OF 21N. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N-56W AND CONTINUES SW TO 23.5N-63W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 49W-52W. TYPICAL
STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE
WARM OCEAN ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-75W.
EAST OF THE TROUGH THERE IS ANOTHER RIDGE BETWEEN 30W-47W.
STRONG WESTERLY JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM NEAR 16N55W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N15W.
DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 30W WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADES DUE TO ZETA AND NO STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH.

$$
GR




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