[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
05/0900 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N
47.0W AT 05/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ZETA. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE E FROM 21N-24.5N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N18W 1N33W 1N39W THEN S OF
THE EQUATOR TO 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
FROM 1N9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 2N. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS E LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF NEAR
30N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR WITHIN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A WEAKENING 1019
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N90W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING E
TO S FLORIDA. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER TEXAS/N
MEXICO AND IS BEGINNING TO SWING E OVER THE NW GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS N FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM SE TO NW. FRONT
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND
BE IN THE W ATLC BY FRI WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMAINS OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE REGION
S OF 20N DUE TO A STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE SW TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADES REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SW/NE ZONAL SURFACE PRESSURE. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST
OF BELIZE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF WILL ENTER THE NW
AREA ON FRI INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BY
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO
COVER THE W ATLC W OF 64W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 51W-64W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W ALONG 25N64W TO
22N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N55W TO BEYOND 32N55W. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES N OF 23N
BETWEEN 23W-51W WITH UPPER TROUGHING S OF THE RIDGE NEAR ZETA
AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N30W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC
IS MOVING SE FROM OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 28N14W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N E OF
23W. STRONG WESTERLY JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM NEAR 16N55W 14N30W TO OVER AFRICA
NEAR 19N16W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 30W
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADES DUE TO ZETA AND NO STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

$$
WALLACE



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