[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 46.0 AT 05/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY
UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ZETA AND EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE E FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
42W-45W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 6N36W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
31W-39W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE RELATIVE QUIET DAY YESTERDAY ACROSS THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO
CHANGE FOR THE NW AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TEXAS COAST INTO
THE GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS E LOUISIANA JUST OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W CONTINUING W INLAND JUST N OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT N OF 28N W OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR
WITH A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N95W WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER FLORIDA. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO AS IT BEGINS TO SWING
E TO OVER THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS N FROM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM SE TO NW. FRONT INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF AND BE IN THE W ATLC BY FRI WITH SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMAINS OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE REGION S OF 20N...N OF A
STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS N VENEZUELA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TRADES
REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLAT ZONAL SURFACE
PRESSURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N FROM 72W-80W
MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND W PANAMA...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW AREA ON FRI
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W BY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO
COVER THE W ATLC W OF 67W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 51W-66W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N61W ALONG 25N66W TO
23N77W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 100 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N61W TO BEYOND 32N57W. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES N
OF 25N BETWEEN 23W-57W WITH UPPER TROUGHING S OF THE RIDGE NEAR
ZETA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N33W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE
NE ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF
23W. STRONG WESTERLY JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT COVERS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N60W 15N32W TO OVER
AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N W
OF 33W WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADES DUE TO ZETA AND NO STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

$$
WALLACE


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