[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 042028
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT
LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 21.7N  45.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  46.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.5N  47.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 25.0N  48.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  50.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 28.5N  53.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  55.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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