[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR
21.9N 44.0W...OR ABOUT 1100 NM/2035 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN
42W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 20N37W. THE HIGH LEVEL LOW CENTER ON TOP OF ZETA
EXTENDS TO A TROUGH FROM 21N43W TO 24N44W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF ALL THIS FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N46W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...FROM 5N
TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W...
AND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
CUBA TO 23N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...ABOUT 60 NM
NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 26N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOWER VALLEY OF
TEXAS INTO MEXICO ALONG 100W FROM 24N TO 25N TO 23N105W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLIDING EASTWARD UNDER BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. THIS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROBABLY IS SEPARATE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS RUNNING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS GETTING ITSELF READY TO MOVE EASTWARD...FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. NOW TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 9N55W IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA IN
AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE. THE AREA NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 86W
STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS
SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N65W TO 22N67W CURVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 88W ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND
86W...EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N60W
29N61W 25N64W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N67W TO 29N70W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. A SURFACE
TROUGH...ALONG WHICH THE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED...
IS ALONG 34N62W 30N64W 25N66W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N53W...IN
BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. ZETA AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION REACHES 31N42W. A TROUGH ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N65W TO 22N67W
CURVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 20N...EXITING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE VARYING
FLOW REGIMES AROUND T.S. ZETA...TO THE AREA OF 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 20N. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N ALONG 30W EVENTUALLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS PART OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THAT AREA. THE REST OF THE FLOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD TO AFRICA AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD...FROM THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...NOW NEAR
32N16W.

$$
MT

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