[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 22.7N
42.7W...OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2180 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW JUST
SE OF ZETA AND MOVING E. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AGAIN
PRODUCING SHEAR ON THE STORM AND CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE
PAST THREE HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26W
BETWEEN 41W-43W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N25W 4N40W 1N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-22W...
AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-31W.   SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 33W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 24N90W...DELINEATED BY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF.  WINDS
ARE FROM THE SW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  WINDS ARE FROM THE W
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N
AND W OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT...AND FOR UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW TO DOMINATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED E/W ALONG 13N...PUSHING BANDS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND
FLOW.  EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO BE FROM THE NE AT 15-20 KT W OF
70W AND PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N AND W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA E COAST
ALONG 32N70W 27N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 240 NM E
OF FRONT N OF 28N.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
T.S. ZETA FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 35W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 50W.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SE OF ZETA NEAR 20N40W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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