[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 23.0N 43.8W OR ABOUT 1395
MILES...2250 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AT 03/0500 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS
ANALYZED BY CIMSS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 2SN45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA BETWEEN 1E-8E.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2N10W TO
3N26W.  ANOTHER LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN
60 NM FROM A LINE ALONG 8N24W TO 3N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDING OUT 150 NM FROM 47-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N83W TO 25N93W.  A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT ARE SEEN OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  10-15 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE WEAK WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH ONLY THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SEEING HIGH CLOUDINESS.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERNMOST CARIBBEAN SEA BY TOMORROW
MORNING.  WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W WITH WINDS 10-15 KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SEA.
A LINE OF SCATTERED ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 65 TO 71W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS FOUND ALONG
10N CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF 80W AND SOUTH OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
NORTHEASTWARD TO A LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A WEAKENING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE FRONT ALONG A LINE
FROM 27N82W TO 31N77W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS ARE N OF 30N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.  A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N70W TO
32N54 W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING
20 KT TRADEWINDS IN THE TROPICS FROM 10N-23N WEST OF 50W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG WESTERLY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW PREVAILS
WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF 26N.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
UNSEASONAL TROPICAL STORM ZETA REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  TO THE SOUTH OF ZETA
TRADEWINDS ARE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY MAINLY 15-20 KT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE TROPICS ARE MAINLY
WESTERLIES FROM 10N-25N...EAST OF 50W.

$$
LANDSEA




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