[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 23.3N 41.3W OR ABOUT 1460
MILES...2350 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AT 03/0900 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  ZETA INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AS SW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLACKENED SLIGHTLY.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-13W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 47W-52W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO SE
LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS ALONG 32N84W
29N90W 27N97W.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE W GULF ALONG
30N81W 26N90W 24N95W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DELINEATE THE SURFACE
TROUGH.  10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH.  WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER REMAIN SE OF THE TROUGH.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLANTIC...AND BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W.  LIGHTER 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.  PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE SEA.  SHOWERS ARE MOST
PREVALENT OVER N VENEZUELA...TO INCLUDE THE ABC ISLANDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
SW TO W WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E OF 80W.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-76W.  A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADEWINDS IN THE
TROPICS FROM 10N-23N WEST OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 30N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005...AND THE
THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN JANUARY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF ZETA AND
MAY DECREASE SHEAR OVER THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ALLOW INCREASED INTENSIFICATION.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS ARE MAINLY WESTERLIES FROM 10N-25N...EAST OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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