[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 23.5N 41.2W OR ABOUT 1460
MILES...2350 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AT 03/0300 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  ZETA MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY DESPITE SW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE CIRCULATION.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N30W 1N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
6W-9W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS INLAND N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S
ALABAMA TO E TEXAS ALONG 32N87W 30N90W 29N96W.  NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 31N80W TO 29N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER FLORIDA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 79W-82W MOVING E.  THE GULF
STILL HAS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF...AND BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS NEAR 20KT ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. LIGHTER E TO SE WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT
ARE BLOWING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  SHOWERS ARE
MOST PREVALENT JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING SW TO W WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E
OF 80W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER N VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W.
THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OF AROUND 20 KT IN THE TROPICS
FROM 10N-23N WEST OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY WINDS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATE
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST.  GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF 30N TOMORROW
MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005...AND THE
THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN JANUARY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF ZETA AND
MAY DECREASE SHEAR OVER THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE TROPICS ARE MAINLY WESTERLIES FROM
10N-25N...EAST OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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